J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

11.04.2022 15:54 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Der US-Arbeitsmarkt ist mit einer Arbeitslosenquote von nur 3,6 % weiterhin äusserst angespannt. Dies unterstreicht die rasche Erholung der Beschäftigungslage in den zwei Jahren seit Beginn der Pandemie. Nach der Rezession von 2008 dauerte es über sieben Jahre, bis sich die Arbeitslosenquote wieder auf das vorherige Niveau erholte. Dass sich der Arbeitsmarkt so schnell regeneriert hat, hat viele überrascht, darunter auch die US-Notenbank (Fed). Das Lohnwachstum beträgt mittlerweile rund 6 % im Vorjahresvergleich, was die Inflation anheizt. Da der Preisauftrieb noch dazu deutlich über dem Ziel der Fed liegt, dürfte die geldpolitische Straffung in den kommenden Monaten zunehmen. Die Fed wird den Umfang ihrer Bilanz ab Mai reduzieren, wobei die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Zinserhöhung um 50 Basispunkte bei jeder der nächsten beiden Sitzungen gestiegen ist. Die Fed ist bestrebt, eher früher als später zu einer neutralen Haltung in Bezug auf die Geldpolitik zu gelangen.

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