J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

21.03.2022 15:01 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die US-Notenbank (Fed) und die Bank of England (BoE) haben die Zinsen vergangene Woche um jeweils 25 Basispunkte angehoben. Aufgrund der hohen Inflation und angespannter Arbeitsmärkte erscheint es richtig, dass die Zentralbanken ihre Geldpolitik straffen. In den nächsten Monaten stehen ihnen jedoch einige Hürden bevor. Die Inflation dürfte dieses Jahr hartnäckig hoch bleiben, aber erhöhte Energiepreise könnten das Verbrauchervertrauen belasten, und die Zentralbanken werden das Problem nicht durch zu schnelle Zinserhöhungen verschlimmern wollen. Im Durchschnitt erwarten die Fed-Mitglieder dieses Jahr sieben Anhebungen, wobei ihre Prognosen zum Wirtschaftswachstum weiterhin robust sind. Bei der BoE forderte diesmal kein stimmberechtigtes Mitglied eine Anhebung um 50 Basispunkte, da die Gefahr besteht, dass die britische Wirtschaft unter dem Russland-Ukraine-Konflikt leidet. Letztendlich rechnen wir mit weiteren Zinserhöhungen der Zentralbanken, um die Inflation zu dämpfen, sofern höhere Energiepreise die Wachstumsaussichten nicht wesentlich beeinträchtigen.

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