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Inzwischen erwarten die Märkte dieses Jahr mehrere Zinserhöhungen in den USA, Grossbritannien und sogar in der Eurozone. Bei ihrer jüngsten Sitzung weigerte sich die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB), eine diesjährige Zinserhöhung auszuschliessen. Die Märkte gingen deshalb davon aus, dass die EZB ihre Negativzinsen bis Ende 2022 beenden wird und nicht erst 2024, wie noch vor einem Monat erwartet. Die EZB ist jedoch mit gegensätzlichen Faktoren konfrontiert. Die Inflation ist in Deutschland erhöht, hinkt in Frankreich, Spanien und Italien dagegen hinterher. Derweil macht Energie mehr als 50 % der Gesamtinflation aus. Allerdings liegt die Inflation in der Eurozone auf Rekordhoch, und die aktuelle Situation könnte die beste Chance für die Zentralbank darstellen, um die Wertpapierkäufe und Negativzinsen zu beenden. Die negativen Zinsen in Europa haben dazu beigetragen, die Renditen auf Staatsanleihen der Industrieländer zu verankern, daher könnte ein Ausstieg aus dieser Politik auch anderswo höhere Anleihenrenditen bewirken.
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