J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

27.01.2014 11:58 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die wirtschaftliche Erholung der Eurozone war bislang recht fragil und ohne nennenswerte Auswirkungen auf den Arbeitsmarkt. Die Beziehung zwischen Wachstum und Beschäftigung ist kompliziert. Unternehmen stellen oftmals erst dann neue Arbeitskräfte ein wenn sie sehen, dass sich die Nachfrage für ihre Produkte erhöht. Doch stärkere Nachfrage ist abhängig vom Gehalt und der Anzahl beschäftigter Personen. Es verhält sich also in etwa wie eine Rückkopplungsschleife. Wie die Wochengrafik aufzeigt, gibt es eine klare Beziehung zwischen dem realen BIP- und dem Beschäftigungswachstum im folgenden Quartal. Allerdings nimmt die Verstetigung des Beschäftigungswachstums erst zu, sobald die Wirtschaft ihr volles Wachstumspotenzial ausschöpft, zwischenzeitlich zieht hingegen die Arbeitslosigkeit an. Die Eurozone benötigt ein stärkeres Wirtschaftswachstum, um weitere Beschäftigung zu fördern und die immer noch erhöhte Arbeitslosenquote zu senken. Dies erscheint durchaus möglich, da sich die Region weiterhin neu aufstellt und die aufgestaute Nachfrage allmählich realisiert wird.

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