J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

10.08.2020 11:10 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Nachdem fast 90 % der Unternehmen im S&P 500 ihre Ergebnisse im zweiten Quartal gemeldet haben, sind die US-Unternehmensgewinne um rund 35 % zum Vorjahr gesunken. So stark dieser Gewinneinbruch auch ist: Die Messlatte lag bereits deutlich tiefer, da die Länder ihre Volkswirtschaften im zweiten Quartal im Wesentlichen einstellten. Insofern übertreffen die aktuellen Zahlen die Konsensprognosen, die einen Gewinnrückgang von 45 % vorhersagten. Da Technologie und andere defensivere Sektoren im S&P 500 hoch gewichtet sind, fallen die Gewinne bisher robuster aus, als es der Rückgang des US-BIP hätte vermuten lassen. Mit Blick auf den weiteren Jahresverlauf signalisieren die Konsenserwartungen eine deutliche Gewinnerholung. Angesichts der jüngsten Erfahrungen einiger Länder, deren wirtschaftlicher Neustart mit neuen Covid-19-Ausbrüchen einherging, wird eine solche Erholung möglicherweise schwer zu erreichen sein, wenn das Virus die Aktivität weiter belastet.

JPMAM_The Weekly Brief_10.08.2020.pdf

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