J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

13.01.2020 14:58 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die US-Konjunkturumfragen haben in letzter Zeit ein unklares Bild ergeben. Im Dezember erholte sich der Indikator des Institute for Supply Management (ISM) für das nicht verarbeitende Gewerbe auf einen soliden Wert von 55,0. Dagegen sank der ISMGeschäftsklimaindex für die verarbeitende Industrie auf 47,2 – den niedrigsten Stand seit Mitte 2009. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass der Dienstleistungssektor der Wirtschaft robust bleibt, obwohl sich das verarbeitende Gewerbe weiter abschwächt. Ein weiterer Indikator für das Geschäftsklima, das Vertrauen der CEOs, ist in den USA seit Anfang 2018 rückläufig. Grund ist der anhaltende US-chinesische Handelsstreit, der die Stimmung beeinträchtigt. Im vierten Quartal verbesserten sich die Umfragewerte jedoch, da die CEOs die wirtschaftlichen Bedingungen weniger pessimistisch beurteilten. Dies könnte zur Verbesserung der Unternehmensinvestitionen führen, aber eine etwaige Belebung dürfte sich – zumindest für den Moment – in Grenzen halten, da das Vertrauen der CEOs im historischen Vergleich weiterhinniedrigist.

JPMAM_The Weekly Brief_13.01.2020.pdf

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