J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

18.11.2019 10:51 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die jüngsten Daten der Industrieländer haben bestätigt, dass die zugrunde liegenden Inflationstrends weiterhin schwach sind. In den USA stieg der Leitindex der Verbraucherpreise (VPI) im Oktober aufgrund der höheren Energiepreise stetig an. Der monatliche Anstieg des Kern-VPI war jedoch weniger ausgeprägt. Insbesondere die Kernrate der persönlichen Konsumausgaben (PCE) – das bevorzugte Inflationsbarometer der US-Notenbank Federal Reserve (Fed) – liegt weiterhin leicht unter dem Fed-Richtwert von 2%. In Grossbritannien entsprachen die Inflationsdaten für Oktober weitgehend dem Konsens, da der Kern-VPI um 1,7% gegenüber dem Vorjahr zulegte. Ein Rückgang der marktbasierten Inflationserwartungen war 2019 ein wesentlicher Faktor für den gemässigteren Kurs der Notenbanken, der die Märkte massgeblich gestützt hat. Die jüngsten Inflationsdaten deuten darauf hin, dass die Zentralbanken kaum unter Zugzwang stehen, die Leitzinsen bald anzuheben. Vor diesem Hintergrund eines unterdurchschnittlichen Wachstums und einer verhaltenen Inflation erwarten wir in den kommenden Monaten weiterhin eine lockere Geldpolitik.

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