J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

07.10.2019 10:51 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die US-Unternehmen signalisieren, dass sie unter dem Handelsstreit leiden. Der ISM-Indikator für das verarbeitende Gewerbe sank im September auf 47,8 – den niedrigsten Stand seit über zehn Jahren – und enthielt schwächere Beschäftigungszahlen. Durch die anhaltende Ungewissheit verschieben die US-Unternehmen ihre geplanten Investitionen in neue Projekte oder Ausrüstung, wie die rückläufigen Umfragen zu den Investitionsabsichten in diesem Jahr zeigen. Unternehmen, die kurzfristig auf eine strukturelle Lösung der Handelskonflikte hoffen, könnten enttäuscht werden. Laut Umfragen befürworten die Wähler beider grosser US-Parteien (Republikaner und Demokraten) eine harte Haltung gegenüber China. Da die geopolitische Ungewissheit auf hohem Niveau bleiben dürfte, sehen wir den Konjunkturausblick gefährdet, wenn sich die Schwäche im verarbeitenden Gewerbe auf andere Wirtschaftszweige überträgt und das Verbrauchervertrauen beeinträchtigt.

JPMAM_The Weekly Brief_07.10.2019.pdf

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