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Avons-nous atteint un tournant dans la prise de conscience de l’opinion quant au réchauffement climatique ? Les étudiants sont en grève, les manifestations d’Extinction Rebellion paralysent nos villes, Greta Thunberg est reçue par les plus grands dirigeants politiques, et les Verts font une incursion sans précédent au Parlement européen.
Nous considérons depuis longtemps la pression du public comme une pièce importante du puzzle climatique. Notre tableau de bord du réchauffement climatique permet de suivre le niveau de préoccupation du public au sujet du réchauffement climatique, d’après l’enquête annuelle de Gallup sur les attitudes des grands pays dans ce domaine. Nous estimons que si 90 % des personnes interrogées sont préoccupées par le réchauffement climatique, la hausse des températures mondiales sera limitée à 2 °C. Or, si seulement 10 % des personnes s’en inquiètent, nous constaterons une hausse de 6 °C.
Les dernières prévisions indiquent une augmentation de la température de 3,3 °C, un niveau qui reste stable depuis le lancement du tableau de bord en 2017. Il sera intéressant de voir si cet indicateur majeur commence à évoluer. Si c’est le cas, des projets politiques tels que le « New Deal » vert aux États-Unis pourraient commencer à changer le paysage de l’investissement. Nous présentons ici ce programme, son fonctionnement, et ce que cela implique pour les investisseurs.
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