J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

19.08.2019 11:41 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die jüngsten Daten zur Industrieproduktion für die Eurozone enttäuschten letzte Woche, wobei Deutschland und Frankreich die Produktion in der Region belasteten. Wachsende Bedenken hinsichtlich der globalen Wachstumsaussichten – verstärkt durch schwache Industrieproduktion und Einzelhandelsumsätze in China – führten zu einer deutlichen Nachfrage nach Staatsanleihen. Die Renditen längerfristiger Anleihen sind in der letzten Woche abrupt gesunken, und der Spread zwischen den Renditen 2- und 10-jähriger US-Staatsanleihen kehrte sich am Mittwoch zum ersten Mal seit 2007 um. Während die Verlangsamung des globalen Wachstums inzwischen eher eine Tatsache als eine Prognose ist, würden wir der inversen Zinskurve keine grosse Bedeutung als rezessives Anzeichen beimessen, da sich die aussergewöhnliche Geldpolitik auf die Form der Kurve auswirkt. Eine weitere Eskalation des Handelskrieges würde diese Expansion erheblich gefährden. Dennoch geht unser Basisszenario weiterhin davon aus, dass keine Rezession bevorsteht, da die Politik der Zentralbanken zur Verlängerung des Zyklus beiträgt.

JPMAM_The Weekly Brief_19.08.2019.pdf

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