J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

03.06.2019 13:00 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Nachdem Theresa May ihren Rücktritt als Premierministerin angekündigt hat, wird die Konservative Partei nun eine neue Führungspersönlichkeit wählen. Es wird zunehmend spekuliert, dass ein Brexit-Hardliner das Rennen machen könnte. Sollte die künftige Parteispitze jedoch einen ungeregelten Brexit anstreben, dürfte sie auf ähnlichen Widerstand stossen wie ihre Vorgängerin. Aufgrund der Mehrheitsverhältnisse im Unterhaus ist davon auszugehen, dass das Parlament erneut die Kontrolle über den Austrittsprozess übernehmen und einen harten Brexit notfalls verhindern wird. Die Alternative wäre, die Bevölkerung nochmals abstimmen zu lassen, entweder durch ein Referendum oder durch Neuwahlen. Die aktuellen Umfragen deuten jedoch darauf hin, dass die britische Gesellschaft in dieser Frage weiterhin gespalten ist und es keine Mehrheit für einen No-Deal-Brexit gibt. Angesichts der tiefen Gräben im Parlament und unter den Wählern liegt die Vermutung nahe, dass ein harter Brexit nach wie vor unwahrscheinlich ist. Daher dürfte auch ein neuer Premierminister Mühe haben, eine Mehrheit hinter sich zu vereinen.

JPMAM_The Weekly Brief_03.06.2019.pdf

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