J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

09.04.2019 10:17 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Der Konjunkturabschwung in der Eurozone seit Anfang 2018 wurde zum grossen Teil durch externe Faktoren und den Einbruch der Warenexporte verursacht. Ein Hauptgrund hierfür war die Abkühlung der chinesischen Wirtschaft, da Peking das exzessive Kreditwachstum eindämmen wollte. Chinas breiter Kreditimpuls – die Veränderungsrate des Kreditwachstums – stürzte drastisch ab. Dadurch sank die Nachfrage nach Exporten aus der Eurozone, wie die stark rückläufige Teilkomponente der Exportaufträge im Einkaufsmanagerindex (EMI) für das verarbeitende Gewerbe zeigt. Inzwischen gehen die chinesischen Behörden wieder dazu über, das Kreditwachstum zu fördern, und der Kreditimpuls zieht an. Demnach könnte sich der Indikator für neue Exportaufträge im verarbeitenden Sektor der Eurozone künftig verbessern, wenn auch wahrscheinlich weniger als 2017.

JPMAM_The Weekly Brief_09.04.2019.pdf

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