J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

16.10.2017 11:04 - JPMorgan Asset Management (Switzerland) LLC

J.P. Morgan Asset Management - The Weekly Brief

Die Stimmung in der US-Industrie verbessert sich weiter. Der im September vom Institut für Angebotsmanagement (Institute of Supply Management, ISM) veröffentlichte Indexstand für das verarbeitende Gewerbe stieg auf 60,8 Zähler und markiert damit den höchsten Stand seit 2004. Der Index setzt sich aus den folgenden fünf Teilindikatoren zusammen: Auftragseingänge, Produktion, Beschäftigung, Zuliefer-Auslieferungen und Lagerbestände. Die Auswirkungen der Wirbelstürme „Harvey“ und „Irma“ belasteten den Indikator Auslieferungen, aber die Stärke der Teilkomponenten Auftragseingänge und Beschäftigung sind besonders ermutigend mit Zählern über 60 (ein Indexwert über 50 Punkte signalisiert Wirtschaftswachstum). In früheren Konjunkturzyklen war der ISM-Index ein guter Frühindikator für das Wachstum der Gewinne pro Aktie (Earnings per Share, EPS) im S&P 500 Index. Daher sollte sich der Anstieg der Produktionskomponente unterstützend auf US-Gewinne und Aktien in den kommenden Monaten auswirken.

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