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Nach einer Schwächephase in jüngster Zeit zeigt das chinesische verarbeitende Gewerbe nun einige Anzeichen der Besserung. Die Caixin-Umfrage für das verarbeitende Gewerbe vom November hat die Erwartungen deutlich übertroffen und die neuen Exportaufträge erreichten ihren höchsten Stand seit sieben Monaten. Zwar könnten wiederauflebende handelspolitische Spannungen zwischen den USA und China im Jahr 2025 noch eine Herausforderung darstellen, doch scheint die Aussicht auf höhere US-Zölle zu einer Vorverlagerung der Exporttätigkeit zu führen. Generell ist zu beachten, dass der Anteil Chinas an den US-Importen seit der ersten Amtszeit von Präsident Trump deutlich zurückgegangen ist, nämlich von 22 % auf 14 % in den letzten sieben Jahren. Im gleichen Zeitraum ist Chinas Anteil an den weltweiten Exporten sogar gestiegen, da chinesische Unternehmen ihre Lieferketten neu organisiert haben, um Länder wie Mexiko und Vietnam einzubeziehen. Anlegerinnen und Anleger der Schwellenländer werden 2025 aktiv sein müssen, um von diesen sich verändernden Handelsstrukturen zu profitieren.
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