Wirtschaft wächst überraschend stark

15.05.2025 10:11

Die Schweizer Wirtschaft hat sich im Startquartal 2025 überraschend gut entwickelt. Das bereinigte BIP stieg gegenüber dem Vorquartal um 0,7 Prozent. Experten hatten lediglich mit einem Wachstum von 0,2 bis 0,5 Prozent gerechnet.

Im ersten Quartal 2025 wuchs die Wirtschaftsleistung in der Schweiz deutlich mehr als erwartet. (Bild Andrzej Rostek/Shutterstock)

Auf bereinigter Basis legte das Bruttoinlandprodukt (BIP) zwischen Januar und März 2025 zum Vorquartal um 0,7 Prozent zu, wie die «Schnellschätzung» des Staatssekretariates für Wirtschaft (Seco) zeigt. Zum Wachstum habe insbesondere der Dienstleistungssektor beigetragen, heisst es. Aber auch die Industrie sei in der Summe gewachsen.

Von der Nachrichtenagentur AWP befragte Ökonominnen und Ökonomen hatten lediglich mit einem Wachstum von 0,2 bis 0,5 Prozent gerechnet. Im vierten Quartal hatte das BIP um 0,5 Prozent zugelegt.

Mögliche Vorzieheffekte

Eine offene Frage ist allerdings, inwieweit das aktuelle Wachstum von Vorzieheffekten angetrieben wurde. Laut Ökonomen dürfte es solche wegen der Zollandrohungen durch US-Präsident Donald Trump gegeben haben. Firmen könnten also das noch tiefere Zollumfeld im Startquartal genutzt haben. Der «Liberation Day» fand dann zu Beginn des zweiten Quartals statt.

Die aktuelle Daten basieren auf einer Schnellschätzung des Seco. Noch unvollständig verfügbare Grunddaten werden dabei mit prognostizierten Werten ergänzt. Die später verfügbaren vollständigen und aktualisierten Daten könnten das Ergebnis noch verändern. Die offizielle Schätzung zum ersten Quartal wird am 2. Juni veröffentlicht.

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