Swiss-Re: US-Zölle treffen auch Versicherer

09.07.2025 11:49

Die amerikanischen Zölle dürften das Wirtschaftswachstum bremsen und so laut dem Rückversicherer die Nachfrage nach Versicherungen dämpfen.

Der Rückversicherer erwartet einen deutlich tieferer Anstieg der Prämieneinnahmen. (Bild II.studio/Shutterstock)

«Die Aussichten für die Profitabilität der Versicherer sind wegen der immer noch steigenden Kapitalerträge nach wie vor positiv», erklärte Jerome Haegeli, Chefökonom des Schweizer Rückversicherungskonzerns. «Aber die Zölle bremsen das globale BIP-Wachstum und dürften damit wohl auch die Nachfrage nach Versicherungen belasten.»

Swiss Re rechnet dieses Jahr weltweit mit einem realen Anstieg des Prämienvolumens um zwei Prozent und 2026 dann mit einem Plus von 2,3 Prozent. Im vergangenen Jahr betrug das Wachstum noch 5,2 Prozent.

Langfristig drohe die Zollpolitik der USA zu einer stärkeren Fragmentierung der Märkte zu führen, was die Bezahlbarkeit und Verfügbarkeit von Versicherungen einschränken und damit die Widerstandsfähigkeit gegen Risiken weltweit schwächen dürfte. Handelshemmnisse und Lieferkettenprobleme oder Massnahmen zur Verlagerung von Standorten könnten die Inflation längerfristig anheizen und die Schadenkosten hochtreiben, heisst es dazu.

Swiss Re prognostiziert für 2025 eine Verlangsamung des globalen Wirtschaftswachstums auf 2,3 Prozent von 2,8 Prozent im vergangenen Jahr. 2026 dürfte die weltweite Wirtschaftsleistung dann um 2,4 Prozent anziehen.

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